Paddy Power, the largest sportsbook in Ireland, has a history of taking advantage of current events to advance its marketing efforts. This week, the bookie adds the 2016 American Republican primary to the list of events it has successfully exploited.
Amidst international interest in billionaire real estate mogul and reality television star Donald Trump’s taking the lead in the primary, Paddy Power has announced that they are already paying out bets placed on Trump winning the Republican party nomination.
As one would expect from Paddy, the Twitter announcement that the company is paying out the bet before Trump actually wins the primary election is itself controversial and pokes fun at Trump:
— Paddy Power (@paddypower) March 2, 2016
Paddy isn’t alone in pointing out and mocking Trump’s often-orange spray tan – one of Trump’s two most serious competitors for the nomination, Florida Senator Marco Rubio, has also publicly mocked Trump’s tan over the last week. While he was at it, he also joked about the size of Trump’s hands, suggesting that a man with small hands might… well, you can guess for yourself.
What are the real odds that Donald Trump wins the nomination or presidency?
Although a highlight reel of recent American politics may look more like a schoolyard fight than a contest between men attempting to take arguably the most powerful position in the world, those same schoolyard antics seem to be to Mr. Trump’s benefit as of late.
It seems that American voters feel that Trump has gotten the best of these altercations. At the time of this writing, sixteen states have held primary elections or caucuses. Trump has walked away with the majority of delegates (used to track progress towards clinching the nomination, which requires 1,237 delegates) thus far, with a total of 2,472. He has walked away with victories and the most delegates in fifteen states.
Three American politicians are still in the race as well: the aforementioned Marco Rubio has 151 delegates and has won one state, Texas Senator Ted Cruz has 300 delegates and has won six states, and Ohio Governor John Kasich has earned 36 delegates but hasn’t walked away with a delegate lead from any state. He is expected to drop out of the race if he doesn’t win his home state of Ohio on March 15.
In order for Trump to lose the nomination, it seems likely that either Rubio or Cruz must drop out. One theory that political strategists in the U.S. have suggested is that when one drops out, many of that person’s supporters will begin voting for the other rather than for Trump. This would give Rubio or Cruz a better chance of winning the nomination than they currently have. If neither drops out, the odds of a Trump nomination remain high.
Whichever Republican wins the nomination will be facing stiff competition from the country’s other major party. The Democrats are down to just two possible nominees – Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton. Clinton has experience as First Lady when her husband Bill Clinton was President from 1992-2000, as a Senator for New York, and as Secretary of State under current President Barack Obama.
Although most polling data suggests Donald Trump would be an underdog in a general election race against either Sanders or Clinton, most data has had a difficult time predicting the level of success he has already attained – he seems to keep surprising political experts. One thing everyone can look forward to, however, is Paddy Power’s future marketing campaigns when they put out lines for the general election.
Presidential nominee lines at Ladbrokes
Paddy Power isn’t the only sportsbook looking to cash out on the American elections. Sportsbook Ladbrokes is also offering lines on the 2016 American election. Ladbrokes has bets available on party nominees and the presidential election winner.
Here are the lines currently being offered for the Republican nominee at Ladbrokes:
- Donald Trump 4/7
- Ted Cruz 7/2
- Marco Rubio 10/1
- John Kasich 10/1
Ladbrokes also has the following lines for the Democratic nominee:
- Hillary Clinton 1/16
- Bernie Sanders 8/1
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